Who NOT to Take in DraftKings This Week — Big Break: The 3M Open

As per usual, I fell on my face this week in DraftKings. And I felt SO GOOD about my picks, it was both shocking and inevitable. With a quick recap, I was doomed by the #ThiccBoi finally detonating in a spectacular and petulant way. I will keep this GIF in a special place for continual replay:

We’ve ALL been there.

I played golf the following day, and a guy in my group managed to ALSO post a 10 on a par-5, and when we asked what we all scored, he immediately said, “I had a Bryson.” I mean, that’s legendary stuff right there.

Let’s be clear – I had four guys make the cut in my recommended lineup. On its own that isn’t awful. But, to give a sense of how successful my weekend was, they were a collective +29 on SUNDAY alone. I’ll give you a moment to digest that and let the nausea subside.

The best of them were Gary Woodland and Jason Dufner who were each “only” +5 on Sunday, while Patrick Cantlay, who I was VERY sure was going to win or at least top-10, got nuked on Sunday, going +7. And my guy Tyler Duncan, who has been money all year, somehow went +12 (that’s an 84, folks) on Sunday to just fully eject. His remains will be scattered on the new greens.

So, we’re left picking up the pieces. And the Tour is moving to Minneapolis, home of the 3M Open where our very own ThiccBoi lost to Matthew Wolff last year, after delivering this gem of a quote:

“I love understanding and growing human potential,” he said. “That’s something I’m all about.”

Bryson DeChambeau, “For Bryson DeChambeau, golf is his ultimate science project,” Minneapolis Star Tribune.

If you recall, this was Bryson’s stunned, mildly petulant reaction after Wolff eagled the 72nd hole to beat Bryson at the very end.

Yeah. That’s how I felt this weekend after watching the carnage. We’re onto Minneapolis!

Last week featured one of the strongest fields in memory, mostly because it’s an “elevated status” event and also, of course, because of MR. NICKLAUS. This week…not so much? It’s sparse, buddy. Here’s an example — Lucas Glover costs $9,400 on DraftKings. Now, I took Glover in a lineup last week and he earned it — but last week he cost $7,100. That salary hike isn’t just because he finished with a T38, it’s a reflection of who else is in (and out) of the field.

And whether it’s cause or effect, this week also has a VERY fun wrinkle – four different competitors were previously contestants on The Big Break. Now, during quarantine, the Golf Channel re-ran many seasons of The Big Break. Oddly, neither featured the two most successful players, Tony Finau and Matt Every. (Spoiler alert!) But I couldn’t resist, so I have two lineups for you today:

The Big Break Lineup:

23 Seasons! And a handful of success stories.

Tony Finau ($10,900) – While Finau seems to struggle to … WIN, he’s a Ryder Cup level player for a reason. (In fact, he also didn’t win Big Break, finishing second on Big Break: Disney Golf.) In this depleted field, he actually has a great chance to shine and did well last week until the end.

Richy Werenski ($7,400) – Richy won The Big Break: The Palm Beaches which was one of my favorite seasons, not just because Melanie Collins was a new host (though it did lead to this super random photo below). But I honestly didn’t know Werenski was playing on the PGA Tour until recently. He’s been doing well, making a lot of cuts and flirting with the top-10. He’s well inside the Fed Ex Cup Playoff list, and has earned over $700,000 in winnings this 2020 season, and over $3,500,000 in his career. Go, Richy! More recently, he’s made every cut since the tour returned (that’s four tournaments for him) and is a solid play.

I, too, have no idea what’s going on here.

Matt Every ($6,100) – Every was on Big Break: Mesquite, and has certainly had his ups and downs (he’s not alone with his Big Break alum, see below) but also has had some very smart things to point out about the PGA’s drug policy. He has a medical license to use cannabis, in a state where that’s legal – but because it violates PGA rules, he’s gotten suspended. Well, he’s back and he’s on my roster.

Tommy Gainey ($6,100) – Speaking of issues with legal authorities, Tommy “Two Gloves” recently got arrested for soliciting a prostitute. This led to many jokes about how folks hoped he was using THREE gloves, and GOD THAT’S COMEDY GOLD. The former contestant on Big Break IV: USA vs. Europe and Big Break VII: Reunion (which he won) was also the first Big Break Contestant to win on tour but has certainly not played well of late. He has an extremely unorthodox swing but hey, he was on the show, he’s in my lineup.

That’s only four, so in order to fill the roster, we had a lot of money left. And even though he’s far from a Big Break guy, he DID shoot 80 on Sunday and is by far the favorite here nonetheless, so I’m taking Dustin Johnson ($11,500) as well as fan favorite Max Homa ($8,000) who is also much more talented than most Big Break contestants but feels like a solid hang.

Non Big Break Lineup:

Look, even I don’t think that’s a great lineup up there, but it IS fun. So a more serious lineup – and one just as doomed to fail – is here:

Brooks Koepka ($11,200) – Koepka doesn’t look right, but he’s playing so I have to assume he’s healthy. And the field is so weak he could steamroll his way to a great finish.

Erik van Rooyen ($8,800) – I’ve talked about his clothing choices before, but van Rooyen is a talent and seems to be turning it on. This is a great venue for him to shine.

Henrik Norlander ($8,600) – Norlander was RIGHT in it last weekend and is heating up at the right time. He’s a bit pricey for a guy who hasn’t done much in the US, but I’m on board.

Troy Merritt ($7,500) – Merritt kind of folded at the Rocket Mortgage and missed the cut this last week, but otherwise has been fairly solid and is a good mid-tier value.

Charles Howell III ($7,400) – Chucky Three Sticks is dependable as always and a money earning machine. This is the kind of venue where on Sunday afternoon you’ll see him in the top-15 and just shrug.

Seamus Power ($6,500) – I’m not gonna lie. Part of me just loves his name. But he finished 12th at the Rocket Mortgage and that’s good enough for me. Let’s roll, Seamus.

So, there you have it. That’s who NOT to bet on this week, because as all evidence shows, I have no idea what I’m doing.

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