So, last week was … hilarious. And a perfect example of why betting on sports is a great way for the house to get rich. If you remember, I made two lineups, one serious and another put together just because I noticed that four former contestants from The Big Break were in the field. Not only did the “good” lineup utterly crash and burn, but the Big Break lineup actually paid out, with guys like Richy Werenski spending the first three days in first place before slipping to a T3 with another Big Breaker, Tony Finau and other of my non-BB entries, Max Homa. (The other two guys, Matt Every and Tommy Gainey both made the cut while my ‘stud’ of Dustin Johnson crashed and burned and WD at +7 after Day 1. This is just a preposterous game.)
When you put together a silly lineup that ends up with three guys tied for 3rd and the only guy who doesn’t make the cut is the best player in the lineup…it’s a good reminder that nobody knows anything. Or, to be more specific, I don’t know anything.
So let’s buckle up and make some picks for this week!
Last week, I lamented how weak the field was, which inflated the prices of a lot of fairly mediocre golfers. We are back to a LOADED field, and there’s way more true bargains to be had. As such, I leaned against the most expensive guys (easier since DJ, Brooks and others have been playing like poo-poo-kaka) and came up with the following:
Patrick Cantlay ($10,100) – Cantlay’s finishes since the #ReturnToGolf has gone 11, 7, 32, with the 32 due to a Sunday +7 detonation. Aside from the one bad round, his game is as good as ever. I’ve been picking him whenever he plays and if I DON’T pick him, he’ll surely win, so I’m sticking with my gut.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,700) – The feisty Brit has been playing fairly insane golf. This goes back to last October, but here are the finishes on the PGA Tour this season (6, 14, 6, 1, 3, 4). Making 6/6 cuts with five of those finishing in the top-6 is … good, right? He’s cheaper than all but seven guys in the field, making him a relative bargain.
Jordan Spieth ($8,100) – Look, I’m betting with my heart and not my head. I love Jordan and I’m really optimistic that he’s figuring it out. His 13th place at the Memorial was great in a tough field and track, and quietly he’s made the cut in 4/5 events since golf returned. I feel like he is either ready to make a leap forward or collapse spectacularly, but I want a piece of the good stuff if it’s gonna happen.
Sergio Garcia ($8,000) – I’m not sure if I’ve actually described on this site how little I like Sergio Garcia, but a bet is a bet. While Sergio missed the cut at the Colonial, he’s posted a 5th place and two 32nd place finishes since. That missed cut was the only one in 12 events he’s played in this season on the PGA. He’s a good bet to make the cut and could easily be in contention come Sunday.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) – Niemann looked ready to explode (in a good way) at the RBC Heritage where he was in it until the end before sliding back to a 5th place finish. He missed the cut at the Memorial but otherwise has played capably. For $7,400, Niemann is a bargain.
Chez Reavie ($6,700) – Big Bill Reavie has been playing solid if unspectacular golf since he stumbled a bit out of the gate upon returning. His last three events yielded 46, 17 and 22 place finishes. That’s pretty good considering he’s one of the cheaper golfers out there this week. I’ve written before that Reavie was an embodiment of all that’s wrong with WGC events like this one, but that’s because he banks cash there! I’m happy to have him fill out my lineup.
And, in a week this deep, you’re crazy if you think I didn’t create other lineups. I did! But here’s a quick one I think has a good chance of making some money:
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
- Viktor Hovland
- Sung Jae Im
- Max Homa
- Ryan Palmer
Berger is the defending champion and has played well this season to date, as has everyone else on this list. Like I said, it’s a great field, so go get ’em. But don’t pay attention to my picks – they are DOOMED!